Author: Andy Reed OBE

Only a fool would venture to make any serious predictions about what will happen politically in 2023. After all who called 2022? Anybody? From Johnson resigning to Hancock on Celebrity TV to the Truss v a lettuce premiership you couldn’t have made it up.

I have waited to write this weeks blog because I saw the two big speeches from Sunak and Starmer were being trailed, and I might have something new to say! I have to admit it wasn’t worth the wait for the Sunak speech. As Chris Mason from the BBC put it to the PM in the Q&A section – “was that it?”

As we draw to the end of the year as we make plans for the Christmas break it is a time to reflect on what has been a tumultuous political year. I’ve called it driving home for Christmas because more of us will this year because of the train strikes…..
It is almost impossible to think back 12 months and guess where we were as a country. What were you doing this time last December. Who was Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary. What was the status of the Covid Pandemic? I teach at Cranfield University – a senior civil service course on working with Ministers and Parliament. Most of my teaching/ lecture notes have been useless int he last 12 months. So you can see why the thought of some stability after the Truss nightmare might have seen a Sunak bounce in the polls. So far there is no sign of this happening, but we will do some poll analysis and what it might mean for the Loughborough seat. Based on current polling there is a 90% of Labour winning IF an election was held tomorrow based on ‘Electoral Calculus’ tables. But as I always point out polls are not elections and there is some way to go.

This blog started out its life in 2010 as a place to capture my thoughts and observations about how we would return a Labour MP in Loughborough again. Having fought the seat for over 20 years I thought I had a little insight into what made the constituency tick.

So it was a pleasure to be present at the selection of Jeevun Sandher this week, as he is given the job to be the next Labour MP. I didn’t think in 2010 as Cameron failed to win the election outright that we would be here in 2022-23 still talking about having to come from behind to win. The elections in 2015- 2017 and 2019 as well as the Brexit referendum in 2016 have all made predicting elections and politics so much harder than in the 90s and early noughties.

This week saw the Labour literally back in Business when a conference with over 400 Business leaders took place in Canary Wharf showed just how serious it is about working to win the next election. Despite some of the nonsensical ramblings of some on the left, no party seriously hoping to win a general election and run the economy can do so without a partnership with Business. The show of confidence from Business leaders attending speaks volumes about who they think will win in 2024. I have written quite a bit about what an inclusive economy based on a wellbeing agenda could look like over at my Saje Impact website. There is plenty of good thinking around at the moment and much of it from good businesses and business leaders.

Isn’t it amazing how quickly we have all forgotten that bizarre period when we had a Truss premiership. Sadly the consequences of that madness will be felt by us all for years. The experiment with Tufton Street Trussonomics has damaged the reputation and economy of the UK. And just because Rishi Sunak is not as clearly as terrible as Johnson and Truss it does not mean we are out fo the woods yet.

The selection process has started for the Loughborough constituency to be the next Labour candidate and of course by definition the hope to be the next Labour MP for Loughborough.