Driving Home for Christmas… and what 2023 might have in store.

As we draw to the end of the year as we make plans for the Christmas break it is a time to reflect on what has been a tumultuous political year. I’ve called it driving home for Christmas because more of us will this year because of the train strikes…..

It is almost impossible to think back 12 months and guess where we were as a country. What were you doing this time last December. Who was Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary. What was the status of the Covid Pandemic? I teach at Cranfield University – a senior civil service course on working with Ministers and Parliament. Most of my teaching/ lecture notes have been useless int he last 12 months. So you can see why the thought of some stability after the Truss nightmare might have seen a Sunak bounce in the polls. So far there is no sign of this happening, but we will do some poll analysis and what it might mean for the Loughborough seat. Based on current polling there is a 90% of Labour winning IF an election was held tomorrow based on ‘Electoral Calculus’ tables. But as I always point out polls are not elections and there is some way to go.

I will also do a proper review of my own thoughts of the last 12 months and be honest about what I got right and wrong with my ever increasingly unreliable predictions. In my defence politics changed dramatically post 2015 and the 2016 Brexit referendum. The rise of populism and the likes of Liars like Johnson and Trump has created a ‘post-truth’ world where the big lie seems to win. I did predict Truss departing but did think she might last a couple of weeks longer to outlast the lettuce.

I will write a longer piece about what we can expect in 2023, but I would appreciate some of your thoughts/ ideas and questions to answer. As a big fan of the Rest is Politics Podcast the Q&A sessions are some of the best. Readers and listeners questions can illicit great inconsistencies in thoughts and ideology. I am sure there is much I have missed and would love to find some new topics!

As you know I like to help demystify politics and how some of it works (or doesn’t) and can be very open and honest! So I’d love some good ideas to get my teeth into.

But certainly in 2023 I’d like to do some longer pieces on Brexit, the monarchy, Poverty and inequality, local devolution, the health service, education,town v gown in Loughborough, Housing and the future of the High street. I’d also like to think ahead to the possibility of a Labour government in the next 18 months and the size and scale of the challenges it will face. It will not be like 1997. The scale of the economic mess will be unprecedented in peace time.

So it’s a Happy Christmas from me and looking forward to seeing you all in the New Year. I do this in the knowledge that this year is going to be really though for so many friends and families. We do live in a pretty divided miserable Britain where poverty, hunger and cold are the everyday experiences of millions. Yet at the same time we have seen Tory Peers ripping the NHS off for £millions during the Pandemic for failed PPE contracts. But we have to have hope. Without it everything can feel meaningless.

See you in 2023. And stay in touch.

And looking forward to working to map this electoral map a reality!

Polling predictions for parliamentary seats in 2022

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