It is early on Friday morning the day after the local elections and the political nerd in me is buzzing. It is the one time each year I enjoy spreadsheets.
So far the results for Labour look encouraging. It is early in the day so there isn’t a complete picture, but it does look as though the Labour double digit opinion poll lead is translating into changes on the ground, at the level, or near the level you would expect.
Labour has taken control of Stoke-on-Trent, Plymouth & Medway as well as the Middlesbrough Mayor.
It appears Labour has been able to appeal to Brexit voters, which will panic the Tories.
Winning an election is about building a coalition. Labour could not win again without Brexit voters and Scotland as well as Remainers in middle England. It is a tough ask, but on the surface it might look like it is possible.
Some quick lessons. The Sunak recovery doesn’t really translate. Truss was so awful *anything* was better. Starmer is still not exciting but doing enough for people to have a look. (That’s his strategy so he will be pleased). The Tories are being squeezed by Labour and Lid Dems with their own Blue Wall problem.
This is why I ask if this a 1995 moment. Are the Tories heading for a 1997 wipeout?
Whilst I have a Loughborough and Leicestershire bias the other results are fascinating come from across the country. And of course it is about the only time of the year we hear much about the Lib Dems who could once again be decisive in a general election – having just seen what is happening in places like Maidenhead (Lib Dems up 18.5% – Tories down 27.1%)
Unfortunately Charnwood (and therefore the Loughborough seat) don’t start counting until later this morning. I will have to live Blog the reactions to the results later during the day via my Twitter and Instagram feed.
@andyjreed_obe
View from the Margins 