Not Another Election o

We all remember Brenda from Bristol as she spoke for the nation in 2017 when she told the BBC ‘No not another one’ when asked about the election

There has been so much to write about with every twist and turn on Brexit since 2017 I have had to mainly cover this over on twitter. By the time I had finished writing a blog everything had changed!

So during this 6 week campaign I will try to throw some light on how I see things working out both on Twitter and some short blogs here.

This will be the first election since 1987 that I won’t be deeply involved. Like much of the electorate I have felt ‘politically homeless’ over the last couple of years largely over the question of #Brexit and the Parties reaction to handling it in Westminster.

Therefore, what happens over the next 6 weeks matters to me. And this is why my opening blog is to say I cannot predict what will happen. All political leaders have taken a massive and in my opinion unnecessary gamble on the future of the country by holding this election. Apart from the risk of giving Boris Johnson a Tory majority government planning for a disastrous No Deal Brexit or another hung parliament this will solve very little. Parliament actually reflects the divisions in the country. They are not going away.

I have been able to largely predict outcomes in my former seat of Loughborough within about 500 votes at each election and I have been heavily involved in most elections since 1987 with 5the as candidate and one as an Agent. I will be watching this one from the sidelines so hopefully this will be an objective look (from an anti Tory bias of course) at what is happening and what lies behind the spin.

As we start the campaign the Tories seem to have a healthy lead that would lead to a clear majority government. But of course polls are always a snapshot of what people think on the day they are asked. They are not a guarantee of future intentions when the situation or campaign has given a different perspective. The Polls have shifted quite dramatically in recent elections and of course no more than in 2017 when may lost a 22 point lead in the Polls. Therefore I make no predictions yet! Although I am worried by Corbynites thinking this will be like 2017 again if we just do the same. I still have remind people we LOST. We got only 4 more seats than when we lost in 2010. In loughborough we lost by more votes than when I lost in 2010. We lost. And that was against a backdrop of a terrible Campaigning Prime Minister, terrible Tory manifesto and plenty of Remain voters giving Labour the benefit of the doubt thinking they would deliver an end to Brexit.

Now we face a election of 4D chess with the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Brexit Party in England and the SNP and Plaid in Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is unpredictable too where the majority voted Remain yet the DUP have played a hard Brexit role in Parliament. You can see why it would be foolish to predict!

Once again I would love people to pose questions about things they are uncertain about or something they would like to see on this election blog! Please comment here or on the various social media channels I will be posting these blogs.

Anybody brave enough to predict? Go on I dare you.

5 Replies to “Not Another Election o”

  1. I think the best hope is the Brexit party taking votes from the Tories. Johnson has been pretty extreme, but Farage can still go further. I”m not hopeful it will beenough though, bearing in mind that under the British electoral system 40% of the vote can get you a landslide when the opposition are split – anyone remember the 1980s?

  2. Thanks Andy

    My question is what strategy would you advise JC if he wants to win?

    1. Good question. I will do one on this. I fear on Brexit he may have left it too late to convince remainers – and Leavers don’t trust him or the Party. Simply he needs to get onto the non Brexit agenda, But the Tories saw this coming an have promised all the extra police and NHS spending (empty rhetoric) and that all people need to hear. I am afraid there is not much he can do about his disastrous personal poll ratings. I think the novelty factor has worn off and there won’t be the same bounce as 2017. I will try to expand!

  3. Do you think Johnson would go for a No Deal Brexit in future or resurrect his latest deal with the EU which was never properly debated in parliament?

    1. Tough one trying to second guess Brexit again after 3 years of messing about. I will try to do a likely scenario with each outcome I can foresee form the election. I will try to do a specific blog on this. No Deal still sits on the table and after the transition period. If he has the numbers he will get his current deal through – but the depends on his new intake and how ERG they are! Quite a few sensible moderates will have left the Commons so he can be more hard-line. Actually scary times ahead if he gets a majority.

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