A couple of quick posts today as I have been out and about in Whitby with family. It was good to see my first real election activity today – two big Vote Labour Posters in windows in Whitby!
I have only had the chance to have a quick glance at the Ashcroft polling but took a special interest because they looks at Loughborough again. Last time in 2014 the race was neck and neck. But as you can see from the latest polls there has been a change to suggest things have turned slightly and probably because of the surge of the Greens a slight lead has opened up – especially on the constituency preference basis.
I will have a proper look at the figure this evening and see what we can learn from this compared to my background and latest whispers from the campaign teams locally.
However, things look to be tightening in these marginals too. Labour would wish to be taking more of these seats, especially if they are likely to lose quite a few (40+?) in Scotland.
The incumbency factor will have kicked in for Morgan in Loughborough. In between 1997 and 2001 my majority rose from 5,700 to 6,500 despite Labour obviously dropping slightly in the national polls. 1st term incumbency is well known.
The collapse of the UKIP vote is also helping the Tories.
But when looking at a variety of polls and the view of the pollsters today it does show Labour and Tories tied at around the 270 mark….and the progressive alliance still ahead when you combine in 40+ SNP and the Lib Dems (are these progressive anymore – let’s see!)
Ashcroft Polling in Marginals