Happy Easter. I have been targeting blogging every day of the campaign but wondered if I should skip Easter Sunday. I was hoping the lack of political campaigning might make it possible. However for those of you who picked up a paper, caught any news or has been following on social media there has been no such luxury of a day off.
Of course the campaign has been dominated again today by talk of the rise of the SNP or the dangers to the Union depending on the politics of your media choice.
As we’ve seen from from the leak to the ToryGraph (more than likely from a Tory insider) there is a short term political game being played to both talk up the SNP (to reduce the number of overall seats Miliband will have) and show this is dangerous as Miliband will have to rely on the SNP so please vote Tory. This is an obvious strategy from the Tories to get them through this particular campaign but it is a dangerous game to play. More of this as the campaign continues.
But this evening I couldn’t resist sharing the Venn Diagram above which from John Rentoul in the Independent shows the various permutations we may face in May.
For those of us not so directly involved in winning the campaign this time it is right that we now turn to working out in more detail what things will look like in the post election period. I think a lot of strategists had assumed some shifts in the polling over the course of the campaign. Indeed the Tories have been told that they would get a poll boost, but it is simply not happening. Even despite the attacks on Miliband in all the right wing press his personal ratings are improving. I still see him as a drag on the Labour vote but that is diminishing.
We need to plan for working with some form of rainbow coalition and/or minority government. We may need to get used to this for the foreseeable future as the electorate continue the break from 2 party politics
My money is still on the Tories being short of a majority and they will struggle to put together another coalition with the Lib Dems (only 25 of them?). What is important is not their numbers but which of them remain. They may not be so right wing once they have lost Clegg & Alexander
So take a good look at the Venn diagram and let me know you where you think it will land!!